Health Care (XLV) was already ugly

By: bitcoin ethereum news|2025/05/15 02:45:04
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Solid continuation but Tuesday turned out to be another solid day for the Tech-leaning sectors and the NASDAQ 100 index. Yesterday I showed a list of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 and their headings on the RRG Graph, where the sectors with a “Northeast” heading were showing the most strength. As you may recall, those were: Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Technology (XLK), Industrials (XLI), Financials (XLF), and Communication (XLC). Today, for a day that saw a positive move in the S&P 500, there were 5 sectors that closed lower – none of which were on the “Northeast” list from yesterday. Additionally, there are now two additions to the South-bound direction: Health Care (XLV) and Utilities (XLU). Seeing the Health Care sector get hit today wasn’t too surprising with the news that there is a potential for drug prices to be capped. Top stocks in the XLV ETF are names like: Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, Abbott Labs, Merck, etc. Health Care (XLV) already looked ugly But the Health Care (XLV) chart already looked ugly. If you got hit by that one today, you weren’t paying attention. The “don’t buy” signs have been present and plentiful. The current price for XLV has been solidly under the 200-day simple moving average since mid-March. Directional Movement has shown Red over Blue since mid-March. Directional Movement has become one of my go-to indicators since going through the CMT program. And the RRG Trend bars have also shown orange or red since mid-March. While there was a nice attempt at a break above the mid-April highs, that attempt promptly failed on the first of May. Seeing higher-highs and higher-lows tend to be a good sign, but that ultimately didn’t work out for XLV. Going back to my comment from Monday regarding XLV on the RRG Chart: “Healthcare appears as if it will skip the Green box and go straight back to Red.” It is still holding onto its position in the Blue (Improving) box for now, but it won’t take much to get it back into the Red (Lagging) box. Another weak sign for this sector. High yield can help with context An index that isn’t always easy to find, but that helps me stay on the right side of the market, is the ICE Bank of America US High Yield Master II Index (MLHY- in FastTrack). Yes, that’s the full name of it and you should know about it. And while it does, kind-of, act like the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), when using MLHY- with moving averages, it tends to have a smoother line with less whipsaws. I got this one from Rob Bernstein of RGB Capital many years ago and it reminds me that you don’t have to take big risks to make decent “equity-like” returns. The high-yield market can be worth a look as an addition to an equity model as it can help you improve the risk-adjusted results of your portfolio. But, like any investment, it carries its own risks. So be sure to do your homework first. The chart below is a one-year chart of the MLHY- with a 50-day moving average. Super simple. This lower volatility index suggests to me that market risk has greatly subsided and the market has resumed the up-trend that has been in place for quite some time now. Just another factor that helps keep me on the right side of the market. And at the end of the day, that’s all that matters. Unlock exclusive gold and silver trading signals and updates that most investors don’t see. Join our free newsletter now! Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/health-care-xlv-was-already-ugly-202505141433

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Before using Musk's "Western WeChat" X Chat, you need to understand these three questions

The X Chat will be available for download on the App Store this Friday. The media has already covered the feature list, including self-destructing messages, screenshot prevention, 481-person group chats, Grok integration, and registration without a phone number, positioning it as the "Western WeChat." However, there are three questions that have hardly been addressed in any reports.


There is a sentence on X's official help page that is still hanging there: "If malicious insiders or X itself cause encrypted conversations to be exposed through legal processes, both the sender and receiver will be completely unaware."


Question One: Is this encryption the same as Signal's encryption?


No. The difference lies in where the keys are stored.


In Signal's end-to-end encryption, the keys never leave your device. X, the court, or any external party does not hold your keys. Signal's servers have nothing to decrypt your messages; even if they were subpoenaed, they could only provide registration timestamps and last connection times, as evidenced by past subpoena records.


X Chat uses the Juicebox protocol. This solution divides the key into three parts, each stored on three servers operated by X. When recovering the key with a PIN code, the system retrieves these three shards from X's servers and recombines them. No matter how complex the PIN code is, X is the actual custodian of the key, not the user.


This is the technical background of the "help page sentence": because the key is on X's servers, X has the ability to respond to legal processes without the user's knowledge. Signal does not have this capability, not because of policy, but because it simply does not have the key.


The following illustration compares the security mechanisms of Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and X Chat along six dimensions. X Chat is the only one of the four where the platform holds the key and the only one without Forward Secrecy.


The significance of Forward Secrecy is that even if a key is compromised at a certain point in time, historical messages cannot be decrypted because each message has a unique key. Signal's Double Ratchet protocol automatically updates the key after each message, a mechanism lacking in X Chat.


After analyzing the X Chat architecture in June 2025, Johns Hopkins University cryptology professor Matthew Green commented, "If we judge XChat as an end-to-end encryption scheme, this seems like a pretty game-over type of vulnerability." He later added, "I would not trust this any more than I trust current unencrypted DMs."


From a September 2025 TechCrunch report to being live in April 2026, this architecture saw no changes.


In a February 9, 2026 tweet, Musk pledged to undergo rigorous security tests of X Chat before its launch on X Chat and to open source all the code.



As of the April 17 launch date, no independent third-party audit has been completed, there is no official code repository on GitHub, the App Store's privacy label reveals X Chat collects five or more categories of data including location, contact info, and search history, directly contradicting the marketing claim of "No Ads, No Trackers."


Issue 2: Does Grok know what you're messaging in private?


Not continuous monitoring, but a clear access point.


For every message on X Chat, users can long-press and select "Ask Grok." When this button is clicked, the message is delivered to Grok in plaintext, transitioning from encrypted to unencrypted at this stage.


This design is not a vulnerability but a feature. However, X Chat's privacy policy does not state whether this plaintext data will be used for Grok's model training or if Grok will store this conversation content. By actively clicking "Ask Grok," users are voluntarily removing the encryption protection of that message.


There is also a structural issue: How quickly will this button shift from an "optional feature" to a "default habit"? The higher the quality of Grok's replies, the more frequently users will rely on it, leading to an increase in the proportion of messages flowing out of encryption protection. The actual encryption strength of X Chat, in the long run, depends not only on the design of the Juicebox protocol but also on the frequency of user clicks on "Ask Grok."


Issue 3: Why is there no Android version?


X Chat's initial release only supports iOS, with the Android version simply stating "coming soon" without a timeline.


In the global smartphone market, Android holds about 73%, while iOS holds about 27% (IDC/Statista, 2025). Of WhatsApp's 3.14 billion monthly active users, 73% are on Android (according to Demand Sage). In India, WhatsApp covers 854 million users, with over 95% Android penetration. In Brazil, there are 148 million users, with 81% on Android, and in Indonesia, there are 112 million users, with 87% on Android.



WhatsApp's dominance in the global communication market is built on Android. Signal, with a monthly active user base of around 85 million, also relies mainly on privacy-conscious users in Android-dominant countries.


X Chat circumvented this battlefield, with two possible interpretations. One is technical debt; X Chat is built with Rust, and achieving cross-platform support is not easy, so prioritizing iOS may be an engineering constraint. The other is a strategic choice; with iOS holding a market share of nearly 55% in the U.S., X's core user base being in the U.S., prioritizing iOS means focusing on their core user base rather than engaging in direct competition with Android-dominated emerging markets and WhatsApp.


These two interpretations are not mutually exclusive, leading to the same result: X Chat's debut saw it willingly forfeit 73% of the global smartphone user base.


Elon Musk's "Super App"


This matter has been described by some: X Chat, along with X Money and Grok, forms a trifecta creating a closed-loop data system parallel to the existing infrastructure, similar in concept to the WeChat ecosystem. This assessment is not new, but with X Chat's launch, it's worth revisiting the schematic.



X Chat generates communication metadata, including information on who is talking to whom, for how long, and how frequently. This data flows into X's identity system. Part of the message content goes through the Ask Grok feature and enters Grok's processing chain. Financial transactions are handled by X Money: external public testing was completed in March, opening to the public in April, enabling fiat peer-to-peer transfers via Visa Direct. A senior Fireblocks executive confirmed plans for cryptocurrency payments to go live by the end of the year, holding money transmitter licenses in over 40 U.S. states currently.


Every WeChat feature operates within China's regulatory framework. Musk's system operates within Western regulatory frameworks, but he also serves as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is not a WeChat replica; it is a reenactment of the same logic under different political conditions.


The difference is that WeChat has never explicitly claimed to be "end-to-end encrypted" on its main interface, whereas X Chat does. "End-to-end encryption" in user perception means that no one, not even the platform, can see your messages. X Chat's architectural design does not meet this user expectation, but it uses this term.


X Chat consolidates the three data lines of "who this person is, who they are talking to, and where their money comes from and goes to" in one company's hands.


The help page sentence has never been just technical instructions.


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