CoinShares: Bitcoin mining companies will see mining costs rise to $79,995 in Q4 2025, facing pressure to break even

According to The Block, digital asset management company CoinShares released a report indicating that Bitcoin miners are facing ongoing pressure to break even while accelerating their transition to AI. CoinShares' research director James Butterfill noted that the weighted average cash cost for publicly listed mining companies to mine one Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2025 has risen to approximately $79,995.

The price of computing power has further dropped from $36 to $38 per PH/s/day to about $28 to $30 in the first quarter of 2026, meaning miners are still under more pressure. The report also pointed out that a triple negative difficulty adjustment at the end of 2025 is the first since July 2022, with publicly listed miners' Bitcoin reserves decreasing by more than 15,000 coins from their peak, with Core Scientific, Bitdeer, and Riot all having sold, and MARA separately announced the sale of 15,133 Bitcoins on Thursday.

Regarding price outlook, Butterfill stated that a rebound in Bitcoin price to $100,000 "is not unrealistic," at which point the price of computing power is expected to rise to about $37 per PH/s/day; if it reaches the previous high near $126,000, it could reach about $59. If Bitcoin remains below $80,000 in the long term, the price of computing power will continue to decline with rising difficulty, but the exit of loss-making capacity may stabilize returns.

In terms of the AI transition, Butterfill expects that publicly listed mining companies are rapidly accelerating their shift to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, driven primarily by the higher and more stable returns in these fields compared to Bitcoin mining. By the end of this year, the revenue share from AI for publicly listed mining companies is expected to rise from the current approximately 30% to as high as 70%.