Bitcoin’s Path Mirrors Global M2, Eyes $120K Surge by May End

By: cryptofrontnews|2025/05/15 03:00:14
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Bitcoin mirrors global M2 with 89.6% correlation, signaling a likely surge to $120K or higher by the end of May amid rising liquidity.April's BTC rally from $76K to $105K validates the M2 model, forecasting continued growth aligned with macro money supply trends.A potential breakout above $160K is expected around May 24 as sidelined investors react to BTC’s strong alignment with global liquidity.Bitcoin continues to shadow the global M2 money supply, with strong signs pointing to a potential explosive move above $120,000 by late May. According to analysis by Colin Talks Crypto, Bitcoin is currently in sync with the global M2 curve — offset by 81 days — and may soon break into new all-time highs. This correlation, already proven in April, forecasts a substantial price rally driven by macroeconomic liquidity trends. On April 8, Bitcoin launched from $76,000 to $105,000, aligning perfectly with a turning point in M2. This move validated the M2-based prediction model and signaled renewed bullish momentum.Strong Correlation Strengthens the Bull CaseThe 81-day lag between Bitcoin and M2 shows a high correlation rate of 89.6%. Over longer spans like 1.5 years, this figure peaks at 92.9%. Even at 30 to 60 days, correlation levels remain above 87%, underlining the model’s robustness. These numbers suggest that Bitcoin’s price often follows global liquidity cycles with slight delays. Moreover, custom offsets like 182 days still show a meaningful 60.2% correlation. Hence, the pattern isn't a coincidence but a recurring macroeconomic signal.Source: Colin Talks CryptoFrom late 2023 through March 2024, BTC and M2 moved almost in parallel. However, BTC outpaced M2 between April and August 2024. Then, from September to November 2024, BTC lagged behind, mirroring M2’s earlier path. During early 2025, BTC dipped while M2 rose, causing concern among investors. Still, April 2025 marked a key inflection point. The "BLAST-OFF" moment confirmed the return of alignment and bullish sentiment.BTC Poised for Explosive UpsideCurrently trading around $104,000, BTC could surge into the $160,000–$200,000 range if the M2 pattern holds. Additionally, a move is projected around May 24. The expected climb, outlined by a green channel, aligns with M2’s previous rise. Consequently, sidelined investors may rush in, triggering intense FOMO. This could fuel an accelerated breakout past previous highs.Besides technical indicators, macro liquidity continues to expand globally. Moreover, the M2 curve suggests that Bitcoin remains in a broader uptrend. Hence, any pullback may be short-lived. The data-driven correlation points to one conclusion — Bitcoin's bull run is far from over.The post Bitcoin’s Path Mirrors Global M2, Eyes $120K Surge by May End appears on Crypto Front News. Visit our website to read more interesting articles about cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and digital assets.

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Before using Musk's "Western WeChat" X Chat, you need to understand these three questions

The X Chat will be available for download on the App Store this Friday. The media has already covered the feature list, including self-destructing messages, screenshot prevention, 481-person group chats, Grok integration, and registration without a phone number, positioning it as the "Western WeChat." However, there are three questions that have hardly been addressed in any reports.


There is a sentence on X's official help page that is still hanging there: "If malicious insiders or X itself cause encrypted conversations to be exposed through legal processes, both the sender and receiver will be completely unaware."


Question One: Is this encryption the same as Signal's encryption?


No. The difference lies in where the keys are stored.


In Signal's end-to-end encryption, the keys never leave your device. X, the court, or any external party does not hold your keys. Signal's servers have nothing to decrypt your messages; even if they were subpoenaed, they could only provide registration timestamps and last connection times, as evidenced by past subpoena records.


X Chat uses the Juicebox protocol. This solution divides the key into three parts, each stored on three servers operated by X. When recovering the key with a PIN code, the system retrieves these three shards from X's servers and recombines them. No matter how complex the PIN code is, X is the actual custodian of the key, not the user.


This is the technical background of the "help page sentence": because the key is on X's servers, X has the ability to respond to legal processes without the user's knowledge. Signal does not have this capability, not because of policy, but because it simply does not have the key.


The following illustration compares the security mechanisms of Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and X Chat along six dimensions. X Chat is the only one of the four where the platform holds the key and the only one without Forward Secrecy.


The significance of Forward Secrecy is that even if a key is compromised at a certain point in time, historical messages cannot be decrypted because each message has a unique key. Signal's Double Ratchet protocol automatically updates the key after each message, a mechanism lacking in X Chat.


After analyzing the X Chat architecture in June 2025, Johns Hopkins University cryptology professor Matthew Green commented, "If we judge XChat as an end-to-end encryption scheme, this seems like a pretty game-over type of vulnerability." He later added, "I would not trust this any more than I trust current unencrypted DMs."


From a September 2025 TechCrunch report to being live in April 2026, this architecture saw no changes.


In a February 9, 2026 tweet, Musk pledged to undergo rigorous security tests of X Chat before its launch on X Chat and to open source all the code.



As of the April 17 launch date, no independent third-party audit has been completed, there is no official code repository on GitHub, the App Store's privacy label reveals X Chat collects five or more categories of data including location, contact info, and search history, directly contradicting the marketing claim of "No Ads, No Trackers."


Issue 2: Does Grok know what you're messaging in private?


Not continuous monitoring, but a clear access point.


For every message on X Chat, users can long-press and select "Ask Grok." When this button is clicked, the message is delivered to Grok in plaintext, transitioning from encrypted to unencrypted at this stage.


This design is not a vulnerability but a feature. However, X Chat's privacy policy does not state whether this plaintext data will be used for Grok's model training or if Grok will store this conversation content. By actively clicking "Ask Grok," users are voluntarily removing the encryption protection of that message.


There is also a structural issue: How quickly will this button shift from an "optional feature" to a "default habit"? The higher the quality of Grok's replies, the more frequently users will rely on it, leading to an increase in the proportion of messages flowing out of encryption protection. The actual encryption strength of X Chat, in the long run, depends not only on the design of the Juicebox protocol but also on the frequency of user clicks on "Ask Grok."


Issue 3: Why is there no Android version?


X Chat's initial release only supports iOS, with the Android version simply stating "coming soon" without a timeline.


In the global smartphone market, Android holds about 73%, while iOS holds about 27% (IDC/Statista, 2025). Of WhatsApp's 3.14 billion monthly active users, 73% are on Android (according to Demand Sage). In India, WhatsApp covers 854 million users, with over 95% Android penetration. In Brazil, there are 148 million users, with 81% on Android, and in Indonesia, there are 112 million users, with 87% on Android.



WhatsApp's dominance in the global communication market is built on Android. Signal, with a monthly active user base of around 85 million, also relies mainly on privacy-conscious users in Android-dominant countries.


X Chat circumvented this battlefield, with two possible interpretations. One is technical debt; X Chat is built with Rust, and achieving cross-platform support is not easy, so prioritizing iOS may be an engineering constraint. The other is a strategic choice; with iOS holding a market share of nearly 55% in the U.S., X's core user base being in the U.S., prioritizing iOS means focusing on their core user base rather than engaging in direct competition with Android-dominated emerging markets and WhatsApp.


These two interpretations are not mutually exclusive, leading to the same result: X Chat's debut saw it willingly forfeit 73% of the global smartphone user base.


Elon Musk's "Super App"


This matter has been described by some: X Chat, along with X Money and Grok, forms a trifecta creating a closed-loop data system parallel to the existing infrastructure, similar in concept to the WeChat ecosystem. This assessment is not new, but with X Chat's launch, it's worth revisiting the schematic.



X Chat generates communication metadata, including information on who is talking to whom, for how long, and how frequently. This data flows into X's identity system. Part of the message content goes through the Ask Grok feature and enters Grok's processing chain. Financial transactions are handled by X Money: external public testing was completed in March, opening to the public in April, enabling fiat peer-to-peer transfers via Visa Direct. A senior Fireblocks executive confirmed plans for cryptocurrency payments to go live by the end of the year, holding money transmitter licenses in over 40 U.S. states currently.


Every WeChat feature operates within China's regulatory framework. Musk's system operates within Western regulatory frameworks, but he also serves as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is not a WeChat replica; it is a reenactment of the same logic under different political conditions.


The difference is that WeChat has never explicitly claimed to be "end-to-end encrypted" on its main interface, whereas X Chat does. "End-to-end encryption" in user perception means that no one, not even the platform, can see your messages. X Chat's architectural design does not meet this user expectation, but it uses this term.


X Chat consolidates the three data lines of "who this person is, who they are talking to, and where their money comes from and goes to" in one company's hands.


The help page sentence has never been just technical instructions.


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