Are Top Buyers in Profit or Pain? Market Sentiment Turns Cautious as Key Cryptos Dip Below Cost Basis

With a phase of heightened uncertainty now upon the crypto market, the mid-term cost basis of euphoric buyers from late 2024 to early 2025 presents a mixed picture. Some assets are still performing positively, but others are definitely not and show all the signs of being in a bear market. Price action over the last week or so has seen a stabilization of sorts that, in some cases, has formed new support zones. These support zones, however, are not where mid-term holders would want them to be. In fact, they’re below price levels that mid-term holders from late 2024 to early 2025 would want to be above. This data is a precious indicator of how the market is feeling. It can be used almost as a form of social media for gauging the sentiment among big investors. When the market price falls beneath the cost basis of the big investor cohorts, we know they’re losing for sure and that they’re not going to be buying anytime soon. They’re going to be afraid and trying to not look at the numbers as much as possible. When we’re in this kind of market and have fallen below the cost basis, caution is warranted for pretty much every kind of investment. $XRP could be due for a retracement, with the TD Sequential flashing a sell signal on the 3-day chart! pic.twitter.com/onZCDJTusd — Ali (@ali_charts) May 7, 2025 Cost Basis Comparison Reveals Sentiment Shifts Let’s analyze how the leading cryptocurrencies are faring against the cost basis of their buyers during the euphoric part of the market between December 2024 and January 2025. Solana (SOL) was bought at an average price of $146 during this period. With present prices down by about 28%, those investors find themselves with substantial paper losses. The deep crimson seen in performance indicates that the asset has lost the momentum needed to move up in price and may find it hard to move back into a bullish position in the absence of a strong catalyst. Ethereum (ETH) tells a nearly identical tale. Anyone who entered the market around $1,800 and is now holding ETH is looking at a 36% loss. For the moment, that’s the worst performance of any asset we track in this group. If ETH can’t hold above the $1,800 threshold, we could see even more asset dumping from frustrated mid-term holders. Bitcoin (BTC), the largest and most dominant crypto asset, also finds itself in a tight spot. With euphoric buyers having entered at around $95,000, BTC is now slightly below that figure, posting a 1% loss. While this may appear marginal, the psychological implications of BTC trading below a key recent cost basis are important. Historically, when Bitcoin fails to hold the average entry price of medium-term holders, it can trigger broader market corrections or stagnation. Are Top Buyers in Profit or Pain? Comparing current prices to the cost basis of euphoric buyers (Dec ‘24–Jan ‘25) reveals mid-term sentiment: SOL: $146 → 28% loss XRP: $2.14 → +11% profit ETH: $1.8K → -36% loss BTC: $95K → -1% loss Price... pic.twitter.com/i5snu7Re7O — glassnode (@glassnode) May 6, 2025 The one clear exception is Ripple’s XRP, which is still showing positive price movement. Investors who bought XRP during the euphoric rally at $2.14 are currently enjoying an approximately 11% return on their investment. However, that bullish trend could very well end in the near future. XRP’s Strength Could Be Fading Market analyst Ali Martinez says XRP might be due for a pullback in the short term. Martinez notes that a TD Sequential sell signal has shown up on XRP’s 3-day chart. This could indicate that XRP is about to take a breather and, in all likelihood, give back some of its recent gains. Since the chart Martinez is using shows XRP’s performance up until now, a downturn would put XRP in the same “major assets” bucket with the other cryptocurrencies that are currently in the red. XRP’s level of importance is within the range of $2 to $2.26. If it closes outside of this decisive level, it could determine the next major trend for XRP. A close above $2.26 would actually negate the current bearish market setup and initiate new buying interest. A close below $2, however, would confirm the current sell signal and likely initiate further downside momentum. XRP has become a point of focus for traders, given its strong performance relative to peers. If it doesn’t hold onto those gains, it could take a further large chunk out of market sentiment. Mid-Term Holders Show Signs of Fatigue The larger issue points to a crypto market that is in a presently precarious condition. When pricing holds below a 3-to-6-month cost basis—a halfway mark nearly always representing conviction and a medium-term outlook—it signals a weak market structure. What we have at this moment is a market around that cost basis, with no clear uptrend, and sellers potentially emboldened by the profit incentive to keep pushing prices down. There is a good chance the market will stay in this beat-up, cautious sentiment until we see either renewed momentum from the market itself or have macro-level catalysts come in and drive prices above these key levels. In the evolving crypto cycle, assets like XRP and BTC could serve as leading indicators for where things go next. At present, the mood is very cautious, and for many top buyers in this space, the pain is being felt in a real way. Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services. 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